On July 23^rd, the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics released the province's economic performance data for the first half of 2024. According to the unified accounting results of regional GDP, Guangdong achieved a GDP of 65,242.50 billion yuan, representing a 3.9% year-on-year growth at constant prices.

How should we interpret this mid-year economic report for Guangdong? There should be a consensus: when fully observing Guangdong's economic situation, we must see both the short-term fluctuations and the long-term development trends.

First, let's talk about the "fluctuations." In the first half of 2024, Guangdong experienced frequent extreme weather and flood disasters, which disrupted both resident travel and enterprise production. Given the high level of external orientation of Guangdong's enterprises, the impact of external environmental shocks can be more direct. For such a large economy as Guangdong, achieving a 3.9% growth rate amidst a significantly more complex, severe, and uncertain external environment is quite remarkable.

A closer look at the 3.9% growth rate reveals some positive signals. For instance, Guangdong's foreign trade import and export scale hit a new historical high for the same period, increasing by 13.8% compared to 2023, providing a stronger boost to the economy than last year. In terms of efficiency, the scale and efficiency of large-scale and state-owned industrial enterprises in Guangdong remained relatively stable, supporting the robust performance of the industrial sector. However, it is also important to note the growing challenges in the current economic operation, particularly the prominent issue of insufficient effective demand, which indicates that the foundation for economic recovery and improvement still needs to be solidified.

Next, let's discuss the "trend." In terms of total volume, Guangdong's economy reached 6.52 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, accounting for 10.6% of the national total, maintaining its leading position as a major economic province. Specifically, Guangdong's primary, secondary, and tertiary industries all maintained overall stable growth, with the secondary industry accounting for 56% of the GDP, and playing a supporting role in the provincial economy.

Currently, Guangdong is accelerating the formation of new quality productive force s and enhancing new development momentum. From a more concrete perspective, the effects of economic transformation and the quality of development are also reflected in the mid-year economic data: the added value of advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, representing new productivity, increased by 8.1% and 13.0% respectively. The output of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, smartphones, integrated circuits, and industrial robots increased by 25.7%, 23.4%, 31.1%, and 37.6% respectively, continuously increasing their presence and contribution rates, enhancing the momentum of Guangdong's industrial transformation and optimization. Additionally, Guangdong's industrial investment has maintained double-digit growth for 42 consecutive months, with high-tech industry investment growing by 19.6%, and investment in advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 18.6% and 23.9% respectively, fully demonstrating the "new" forces of Guangdong's manufacturing industry, effectively stabilizing business confidence.

Advancing towards "new" forces and improving quality through "new" forces. Economic changes occur in stages, with different manifestations at each stage. As long as we maintain strategic focus and work together to address the obstacles hindering the development of new quality productive forces, the major economic province will be better positioned to take on greater responsibilities and make more significant contributions to the national economic landscape.

Source :Yangcheng Evening News

快评｜如何看待广东经济半年报的“形”与“势”？

7月23日，广东省统计局发布了上半年广东经济运行数据。根据地区生产总值统一核算结果，上半年，广东实现地区生产总值65242.50亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长3.9%。

如何解读这份广东经济半年报？应该有这么一个共识：全面观察广东的经济运行情况，既要看到短期波动之“形”，更要看到长期发展之“势”。

先说“形”。今年上半年，广东极端天气、雨涝灾害多发，对居民出行和企业生产造成了扰动。而广东企业的外向度高，受外部环境冲击影响可能更直接。可以说，对于广东如此庞大的经济体量而言，在外部环境复杂性严峻性不确定性明显上升的情形下，实现3.9%的经济增速是非常不容易的。

再细看3.9%的增速，释放出一些更为积极的信号。比如，广东上半年外贸进出口规模再创历史同期新高，较去年同期增长13.8%，对经济的拉动比去年更强劲；在效益方面，广东规模以上工业企业中，大型的、国有的企业规模效益比较稳定，支撑了工业行业上升的强势表现，等等。但也要看到，当前经济运行中的困难挑战有所增多，特别是有效需求不足的问题比较突出，经济回升向好基础仍需巩固。

再说“势”。从总量上看，广东上半年经济总量达6.52万亿元，占同期全国经济总量的10.6%，广东经济大省挑大梁的态势没有改变。具体来看，广东一二三产业均保持了总体的稳定增长态势，其中第二产业在GDP的占比达56%，对全省经济起到支撑的作用。

当前，广东正加快形成新质生产力，增强发展新动能，从更加具象的视角来看，经济转型之“效”、发展之“质”亦直观反映在经济半年报的数据上：代表着新质生产力的先进制造业、高技术制造业增加值分别增长8.1%、13.0%，新能源汽车、智能手机、集成电路、工业机器人产量分别增长25.7%、23.4%、31.1%、37.6%，这些战略性新兴产业的“存在感”和贡献率不断提高，广东产业转型调优动能持续增强。此外，广东工业投资连续42个月保持两位数的增长，全省高技术产业投资增长19.6%，先进制造业和高技术制造业投资分别增长18.6%、23.9%，这些都充分显示了广东制造业的向“新”力，实实在在稳定了经营主体的信心。

向“新”而行，以“新”提质。经济的变化有阶段性，每个阶段有不同的表现，只要我们保持战略定力，各方面齐心协力，着力打通束缚新质生产力发展的堵点卡点，经济大省定能更好挑起大梁，为全国经济大局作出更大贡献。

文｜李妹妍
图｜视觉中国
译｜赵凡