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U.S. scholars: when TikTok really pulls out of the U.S., it may make more Americans reflect on it
来源:羊城晚报 云上岭南 作者:孙唯 发表时间:2024-04-27 10:21

U.S. President Joe Biden said he had signed a $95 billion foreign aid bill on the same day. The bill involves forcing ByteDance to divest its app TikTok's U.S. operations. In relevant terms, ByteDance was given a deadline of about nine months to divest its U.S. operations or face a nationwide U.S. ban.In addition, Biden can exercise his power to extend the sale once for 90 days if he determines that it is progressing. Beijing time that night, TikTok in the X platform released a statement in response, the ban is unconstitutional, will take legal action.

Why is the United States banning TikTok and what kind of impact will it have on the lives of the American people?Yangcheng Evening News reporter interviewed Daniel Egger, one of the founding fathers of the international Internet, a professor at Duke University's Master of Engineering Management program, with a doctor of law from Yale University.

Business competition is the main reason TikTok was banned

"I'm not in favor of Tiktok exiting the U.S. market; it should be free to operate in the U.S. in the same way it operates now." Daniel Egger said, "It's an incorrect thing to do, but Congress and the President have shown they are willing to let it happen."

Daniel Egger said that TikTok's algorithms are different from rival social media like Facebook, Instagram, X, etc., and that it provides very different content compared to typical social media platforms. There are about 170 million Americans who use Tik Tok, which provides a whole different user experience for American users, many of whom will spend hours browsing through content on TikTok and getting a kick out of it that they can't get on other social media platforms. Other social media platforms such as Facebook and X are actually more easily manipulated by third-party actors using "bots" and fictional personas for disinformation and political manipulation. The US Government is willing to tolerate that, but seems worried about the theoretical risk of a future Chinese government causing TikTok to manipulate its own algorithms to influence US public opinion. 

In Egger's opinion, TikTok has made it easier for ordinary people in the US with no money or power to reach a receptive audience of strangers, at no cost, without having to spend money on advertising.

"TikTok allows ordinary people to grow a following for free more effectively compared to other social media, and that's a huge enhancement to US the social media ecosystem ."

So why is the US asking TikTok to exit the US market?

Daniel Egger argues that the U.S. government is not unified on the issue of TikTok, and that there are different interests and goals between different factions. 

The most influential faction that supports the TikTok ban includes those that see it as a commercial competitor, and Egger believes that is in fact the underlying impetus for TikTok's ban in the US. A second reason is the need to scapegoat a well-known target to show anti-China agitators that "something is being done about China."

The ban was primarily lobbied-for by people who see TikTok as a financial threat to their own growth, and acted because they believed they would be threatened by TikTok. 

"It's really a political process distorted by very small numbers of people with very large amounts of money." Daniel Egger said that in the current U.S. Congress, if you have money to donate, you can get members of Congress to speak and do a lot for your interests."

Some U.S. members of the House and Senate convinced themselves to vote for the ban because either, they believe that TikTok will be sold instead of banned and continue to operate in the US, or they believe that the courts will step in and block the law because it violates free speech - in effect, many legislators are rationalizing their dangerous vote by assuming that a total ban will never happen. 

Daniel Egger said, "And for Biden and his team, even if this bill passes, if it's not blocked by the courts, it still won't go into effect until after the presidential election and congressional elections in November. So the ban on TikTok, although highly unpopular with ordinary voters, isn't going to have an immediately damaging effect for them on the outcome of the election."

Americans don't see TikTok as a threat to national security

Throughout the process of banning TikTok, some members of the U.S. Congress have cited TikTok's invasion of privacy and threat to national security as justifications. In reality, however, this argument is highly speculative and not based on information shared with the public. Some in Congress say they government has secret information, but no Court in the US will ban free speech unless they are given persuasive evidence.

"By now, most people have heard the allegation that the Chinese government has access to the information they provide to the APP. But I doubt that even people who believe that is true would consider it a significant risk to themseves,"Daniel Egger said, "But all the APPs operating in the United States actually know very much about personal information and personal privacy, and most people willingly and knowingly trade some of their privacy in exchange for the services provided by free social media software. When users use Facebook, Instagram, X, etc., everyone understands that we are voluntarily selling some personal information in exchange for services and on balance benefiting from them."

According to Daniel Egger, the reason why the US Congress and the US government can successfully use the reason of "jeopardizing national security" to cover up the nature of business competition is that behind it, the US has different types of fears about China."

One of those fears is a fear of the supply chain. Many believe that the U.S. is overly reliant on China's supply chain because in the event of a supply chain disruption, the U.S. will likely be unable to obtain some key components, which could put U.S. national security at some risk as well. But attacking specific elements of the supply chain, will hurt powerful US financial interests and Companies, which will resist politically, TikTok is used mostly by individuals and small businesses that lack political power.

The bias is that TikTok doesn't work in any serious way with wealthy companies in the U.S. The business that TikTok is involved in is mostly related to small businesses, like they would advertise on TikTok or something like that. It's a fairly small problem and a much easier target to solve, so TikTok is acting like a scapegoat." While the U.S. government may seem to be doing something about the fear of China, they're not going to hurt important U.S. companies that want to do business with Chinese partners."

If TikTok does get banned, it might make more Americans reflect on it

During the TikTok ban, some U.S. lawmakers tried to convince average Americans that TikTok would be sold off, rather than pulling out of the U.S., thus lowering the resistance to the TikTok ban in the United States." But in reality, this argument is most likely a political ploy or a matter of self-deception. I do not believe TikTok will sell its algorithm to any American company. They will opt out of the American market before agreeing to a forced sale," Daniel Egger says. 

In fact, even if TikTok pulls out of the U.S.,Americans will still be able to access servers in other countries, according to Daniel Egger. Currently, Americans have unlimited access to IP addresses around the world, and if the government started blocking access to the rest of the world for US citizens, it would almost certainly be seen to violate US rules on free speech.. Thus this ban on TikTok is not actually a practical move that would support the actions of the US government, which does not prevent Americans from using the Internet.

In the meantime, TikTok has legal recourse to defend its legal rights. Previously Montana already had a state law banning TikTok. But a federal court said the law violated the First Amendment rights of U.S. citizens under the U.S. Constitution, namely the right to free speech. Courts have stopped laws from being enacted on the grounds that they are unconstitutional, and there is a good chance that such laws will be struck down by the courts again.. A forced sale is in reality a ban - and any US court that reviews the law will understand that. All this means that although the risk of TikTok leaving the US market is more than zero, most likely the entire episode is political theater to appease two groups: business competitors and anti-China agitators. 

However, if TikTok does pull out of the United States, the impact on the average American will undoubtedly be huge."The first to bear the brunt will be small businesses, those who have built up a customer base on TikTok. And for artists, musicians, and a number of other individual creators will be affected as well."Daniel Egger said, "For example, I follow Bri Scalesse, a fashion model who uses a wheelchair, and is working to promote fashion for people with disabilities. Without TikTok, it will be much harder for people like her to be seen and succeed at their advicacy work."

"If TikTok is forced out of the US market, this will also likely will cause the American public to reflect more deeply on the US-China relationship."

At the moment, we're only hearing from those organized people who want to exacerbate tensions," Daniel Egger said. But when people start to experience the cost of increased tensions directly, I think the vast majority of people want to de-escalate them."

Interviewee Introduction

Daniel Egger has more than seventeen years experience creating new software products and services, as founder and CEO of a series of venture-backed information technology companies, and as Managing Partner in a venture capital fund. Egger is Executive in Residence in Duke University’s Master of Engineering Management Program and has taught courses in entrepreneurship and venture capital at Duke since 2003. He was formerly the Howard Johnson Foundation Entrepreneur-in-Residence in Duke’s Markets and Management Program for undergraduates.(From Duke University's official website)

北京时间4月24日,美国总统拜登表示,他已于当日签署了价值950亿美元的对外援助法案。该法案涉及强制字节跳动剥离旗下应用TikTok美国业务。在相关条款中,字节跳动被限期约九个月剥离其美国业务,否则将面临美国全国禁令。此外,如果拜登确定出售事宜取得进展,他还可行使一次90天的延期权力。北京时间当晚,TikTok在X平台发布声明回应,该项禁令违宪,将诉诸法律。

为什么美国要禁止TikTok?它将对美国民众的生活带来什么样的影响?羊城晚报记者专访了国际互联网奠基人之一、杜克大学工程管理硕士项目教授、耶鲁大学法学博士丹尼尔·埃格尔。

商业竞争是TikTok被禁的主要原因

“我并不赞同Tiktok退出美国市场,它应该以现在的运营方式在美国运营。”丹尼尔·埃格尔说,“这是一件不正确的事情,但国会和美国总统已经表示,他们愿意让它发生。”

丹尼尔·埃格尔表示,TikTok的算法与Facebook、Instagram、X等社交媒体不同,它能提供与一般的社交软件相比非常不同的内容。有大约1.7亿的美国人使用TikTok,这为美国用户提供了全然不同的用户体验,很多人会花费几个小时浏览TikTok上的内容,并且从中获得在其他社交软件上无法获得的乐趣。其他社交媒体平台,如 Facebook 和 X,实际上更容易被第三方利用“机器人”和虚构角色进行虚假信息和政治操纵。“美国政府愿意容忍这种情况,却似乎担心未来中国政府会让TikTok操纵自己的算法来影响美国舆论的理论风险。”

在丹尼尔·埃格尔教授看来,TikTok让没有钱或者权力的美国普通人能够更轻易地接触到不同的陌生观众,他们有机会用低成本把自己的内容推送到不同的观众当中,而不需要花钱投广告。“和其他的社交媒体相比,TikTok能让普通人更有效地免费发展追随者,这是对美国社交媒体生态圈的巨大提升。”

那为什么美国要求TikTok退出美国市场呢?

丹尼尔·埃格尔认为,美国政府在TikTok的问题上并没有达成统一,不同派别之间有不同利益和目标。那些支持TikTok禁令的派别,其实是那些视之为商业竞争对手的派别,而丹尼尔·埃格尔相信这正是TikTok在美国被禁止的根本动力。第二个原因是需要把一个众所周知的目标作为替罪羊,向反华煽动者表明 “正在对中国采取一些行动”。

“这其实是一个被极少数拥有巨额资金的人所扭曲的政治过程。”丹尼尔·埃格尔说,在当前的美国国会中,如果你可以捐助献金,你可以让国会议员为你的利益讲很多话、做很多事情。“美国众议院和参议院的一些议员说服自己投票支持禁令,因为他们相信TikTok将被出售而不是被禁止并继续在美国运营,或者他们相信法院会介入并阻止该法律,因为它侵犯了言论自由--实际上,许多议员通过假设全面禁令永远不会发生,从而合理化他们危险的投票。”丹尼尔·埃格尔说,“而对于拜登和他的团队而言,即使这个法案通过了,如果没有被法院阻止,它仍然要等到11月总统大选和国会选举之后才能生效。因此,对TikTok的禁令虽然极不受普通选民的欢迎,但并不会对他们的选举结果产生立竿见影的破坏性影响。”

美国人并不认为TikTok会威胁到国家安全

在禁止TikTok的整个过程中,美国国会的一些议员以TikTok侵犯隐私和威胁国家安全为理由。但实际上,这种说法是高度臆测的,并不是基于与公众共享的信息。 

“现在为止,许多人都听说过这样一个指控:中国政府可以获取他们提供给APP的信息。但我怀疑有多少人会相信这种控告,或者认为这是一个对他们自己的重大风险。”丹尼尔·埃格尔表示,“但在美国运营的所有APP其实都知道非常多的个人信息与个人隐私,而大部分的人是愿意在被告知的情况下通过出卖自己的部分隐私来换取免费社交软件提供的服务。用户在使用Facebook、Instagram、X等的时候,大家都明白我们是自愿通过出卖一些个人信息来换取服务,并在权衡利弊之后从中获益。”

丹尼尔·埃格尔认为,美国国会和美国政府之所以可以成功地用“危害国家安全”这一理由来掩盖商业竞争的本质,背后是美国对中国有各种不同类型的恐惧。“其中有一种恐惧是对供应链的恐惧。很多人认为美国过度依赖中国的供应链,因为一旦供应链中断,美国可能将会无法获得一些关键部件,这可能让美国的国家安全也受到了一定的威胁。但是,攻击供应链中的特定环节,将伤害美国强大的金融利益集团和公司,它们将在政治上进行抵制,而TikTok的用户主要是缺乏政治力量的个人和小企业。”

偏偏TikTok没有以任何严肃的方式和美国的富有的公司进行合作。TikTok涉及的业务主要是和小型企业有关,比如他们会在TikTok上做广告之类的。这是一个相当小的问题和更容易解决的目标,因此TikTok就像一个替罪羊。“尽管美国政府看起来似乎在为对中国的恐惧做些什么,但他们不会伤害那些想与中国合作伙伴做生意的重要美国公司。”

如果TikTok真的被禁,或许会让更多美国人反思

在TikTok被禁的过程中,一些美国议员试图说服普通美国人,TikTok将会被出售,而不是退出美国,从而降低TikTok禁令在美国的阻力。“但实际上,这种说法很可能是一种政治伎俩或自欺欺人。我不相信TikTok会向任何美国公司出售其算法。在同意强制出售之前,他们会选择退出美国市场。”丹尼尔·埃格尔说。

丹尼尔·埃格尔认为,实际上,即便TikTok退出美国,美国人仍旧可以访问其他国家的服务器。目前,美国人可以无限制地访问世界各地的IP地址,如果政府开始阻止美国公民访问世界其他地址,几乎肯定会被视为违反美国的言论自由规则。因此这种关于TikTok的禁令,实际上并没有实际的举措能够支持美国政府的行动,因为政府并不能阻止美国人使用互联网。

与此同时,TikTok还可以通过法律维护自己的合法权益。此前蒙大拿州已经有禁止TikTok的州法律。但联邦法院表示,该法律侵犯了美国宪法赋予的美国公民的第一修正案权利,即言论自由权。法院以违宪为理由阻止了法律的颁布,这种法律很有可能会再次被法院驳回,强制出售实际上就是禁止——任何审查该法律的美国法院都会明白这一点。所有这一切都意味着,尽管TikTok 退出美国市场的风险大于零,但整个事件很可能是一场政治闹剧,目的是安抚两类人:商业竞争对手和反华煽动者。

然而,如果TikTok真的退出美国,那么对美国普通民众的影响无疑是巨大的。“首当其冲的会是小商户,那些在TikTok上积累了客户群体的小商户。而对于艺术家、音乐家,以及其他一些个体创造者也会受到影响。”丹尼尔·埃格尔说,“举个例子,我关注了一位在轮椅上的残疾时尚模特,她正在致力于推广残障人士的时尚。如果没有TikTok,像她这样的人将很难被人看到,也很难在他们的宣传工作中取得成功。”

“如果TikTok被迫退出美国市场,这也可能将会引起美国公众对于中美关系的更深一层的反思。”丹尼尔·埃格尔说,“目前,我们只听到那些有组织的人希望加剧紧张局势。但当人们开始直接感受到紧张局势加剧的代价时,我认为绝大多数人都希望缓和紧张局势。”

文|记者 孙唯 实习生 王铠呈 张佳慧
翻译|陈彦充
图|杜克大学