Pennsylvania, July13th — During a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former U.S. President Donald Trump was attacked by a shooter. The incident left Trump with an injury to his right ear, and he was seen with blood on his face as the Secret Serviceescorted him off the stage.

The shooter was killed on the spot by the Secret Service personnel. Besides, one attendee lost his life, and two others were seriously injured.

This assassination attempt has shocked the world, raising two major questions: What was the motive behind the shooter's attack on Trump? And how might this incident impact the upcoming U.S. presidential election?

Let's first address the motive.

Currently, available information reveals that the shooter was Thomas Crooks, a 20-year-old registered Republican who had once donated 15 dollars to Joe Biden's campaign. It's worth noting that in the U.S., Party registration is not strictly enforced, and a Republican supporter does not necessarily support Trump.

Crooks' motives remain unclear since he is no longer alive to provide an explanation.

Public speculation suggests three possible motives.

First, some believe the attack was orchestrated by the so-called "deep state".

"Deep state" is a term referring to influential bureaucratic entities such as the United States Department of Justice, intelligence agencies, or the military-industrial complex. Some believe these groups are the true power behind the U.S. government, referring to them as the "Dark Empire" or "State within a State."

Supporters of this theory argue that these groups view Trump as a threat to their interests and resorted to assassination since they couldn't defeat him electorally.

This perspective is popular among Trump's far-right supporters and is often labeled as a conspiracy theory. Following the assassination attempt, this narrative has gained some traction.

Second, some suggest that it is the gunman's personal behavior driven by intense personal animosity towards Trump.

Since Trump's candidacy, the political climate in America has grown increasingly violent. Although Trump is known for his verbal aggression, this has potentially incited violent tendencies in his opponents. It's possible that Crooks harbored deep resentment towards Trump, fearing his return to power would undermine American democracy, prompting him to take extreme action.

Some Republicans have blamed the Democrats' hostile rhetoric towards Trump for inciting the attack.

Third, a minority believe that Trump might have staged the assassination attempt.

They argue that if Trump were only injured in the assassination attempt and not killed, he would emerge as a hero and resilient fighter, garnering sympathy and potentially securing more votes.

Of the three motives, the author finds the first one unlikely, and the thirdeven less plausible. Given the visible injury to Trump's right ear, any closer and it could have been fatal, making it improbable that he would risk his life in a high-stakes self-staged act just to gain votes.

So, the second motive appears most plausible, individual extreme behaviors with intense personal animosity towards Trump.

However, this conclusion is tentative, as investigations into such incidents rarely yield conclusive results. Even when they do, public skepticism often still persists.

In U.S. history, investigations into the assassination of presidents and presidential candidates have often faced similar challenges.

Now, let's consider the potential impact of this event on the presidential election.

It can be seen from two aspects, the first is whether he can attend the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and the recent impact of the assassination attempt, and the second is the long-term impact of the event.

In the short term, Trump's injury is unlikely to prevent him from attending the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 15th, as reports indicate his wounds are not severe.

The assassination attempt has, in fact, boosted Trump's image, allowing him to position himself as a courageous and determined candidate.

This incident counters previous criticisms from Democrats who labeled Trump a coward for allegedly dodging military service when he was young.

But now, the image of Trump, bloodied yet defiant, will likely resonate positively with many voters, casting him as a fighter.

Trump can also use this incident to attack Democrats, accusing them of desperation and unethical tactics, while simultaneously garnering public sympathy.

Consequently, in the short term, the benefits brought bythe assassination attempt on Trump may significantly outweigh his injury.

The Biden campaign's cautious response underscores this advantage.

After news of Trump's assassination attempt broke, Biden's campaign reacted quickly and cautiously. They engaged in standard, politically correct actions, such as condemning violence, calling for unity, pausing campaign activities, and canceling some campaign ads.

However, Biden and his campaign are unlikely to comment extensively on the incident to avoid any misinterpretations that could benefit Trump and negatively impact himself.

In the long term, the impact of the assassination attempt on the U.S. presidential election remains to be seen. With nearly four months until the election, if the investigation concludes that the incident is unrelated to the Democratic Party and is purely an individual act, the assassination effect will diminish, and the impact on the campaigns of Trump and Biden will be minimal.

However, if the investigation reveals any connection between the shooter, Thomas Crooks, and the Democratic Party, it could significantly harm the Democratic Party's chances in the election.

Source:Yangcheng Evening News

特朗普遇刺枪手是何动机？对选情有何影响？丨分析

当地时间7月13日，特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州一场竞选集会上演讲时，突遭枪手行刺，右耳受伤，脸上带血被特勤护送离场。

枪手被特勤人员当场打死，此外有一名参与集会者丧生，另有两人重伤。

这一刺杀未遂案不折不扣地震惊了全世界。那么这里有两个问题：第一，枪手为什么要刺杀特朗普？第二，刺杀案对美国大选选情会产生什么影响？

先看第一个问题。

据目前公布的信息，枪手是年仅20岁的托马斯·库鲁克斯，他是一名注册共和党人，曾给拜登的竞选活动捐过15美元。这里需要注意的是，美国的党员注册并不严格，而且支持共和党的人不一定支持特朗普。

况且枪手已死，所以这些信息还是说明不了行刺特朗普的动机。

根据舆论的反应，刺杀特朗普的动机有三种可能。

第一，认为是所谓的“深层政府”（deep state）组织、指使的。

所谓“深层政府”，在美国政治中，是指一些官僚机构比如司法部、情报部门或者军工复合体等既得利益集团。有人认为这些集团是真正掌握美国政府的幕后势力，也称之为“黑暗帝国”“国中之国”等。

近些年来，支持特朗普的一些人认为，特朗普当选会触动到“深层政府”的利益，但他们又无法通过选举击败特朗普，所以“深层政府”一直想刺杀特朗普。

这种观点在支持特朗普的极右翼势力中比较流行，也是一种阴谋论。这次发生刺杀案后，这种说法自然又有一定市场。

第二，认为这是一种个人行为。

因为自特朗普参选总统以来，给美国的政治带来了更多的暴力情绪，当然了，特朗普本人主要是语言暴力，但这种语言暴力也促使与其对立的阵营倾向暴力。在这种情况下，可能有一些痛恨特朗普的人、一些担心特朗普上台之后会破坏美国民主制度的人，就会采取极端行为，试图刺杀特朗普。库鲁克斯或就是其中之一。

特朗普逃过一劫后，有共和党人就指责，民主党人对特朗普的仇恨语言，是这次刺杀行动的主要原因。

第三，也有少数人认为这可能是特朗普的自导自演。

因为如果特朗普遇刺仅仅受伤，又没有死亡，能继续参加竞选，那他身上就会增添一层英雄、强硬斗士的色彩，也能引起一些人的同情，这样就会为他争取到更多选票。

这三种说法中，笔者个人感觉，第一种的可能性不大，第三种、自导自演的可能性更小，现场可见，特朗普右耳受伤，如果再偏一点点，他可能就会当场身亡，所以他不可能用这种赔上老命的高风险自导自演来争取选票。

所以从目前情况看，最有可能的是第二种动机，即是一些憎恨特朗普的人采取的个人极端行为。

当然这个观点还有待调查，而且需要注意的是，对于这种刺杀案的调查往往很难有明确的结果，即使有结果，很多人也会有不同的看法，不相信调查结果。美国历史上刺杀总统和刺杀总统候选人的案件调查大部分都是如此。

那么再看第二个问题，就是特朗普遇刺受伤对本来已经比较混乱的选情有什么影响？

这个问题也有两个部分。第一是他能不能参加美国共和党全国代表大会，以及刺杀未遂案的近期影响，二是事件的长远影响。

近期影响看，首先特朗普肯定可以参加7月15日举行的共和党全国代表大会，因为从报道看，虽然非常惊险，但特朗普实际受的伤并不重，已经能正常活动。

而且这次遇刺，实际上在短期内给特朗普带来了很大的正面影响。他可以充分利用这次事件，把自己塑造成为一个勇敢、坚持、有战斗精神的总统候选人。

因为过去民主党阵营和自由派都攻击特朗普，说他只是一个“嘴炮”，实际很不勇敢，年轻时还曾找借口逃服兵役。

那现在的特朗普就可以说自己是一名斗士，而他在遇刺现场的表现，特别是迅速传遍世界的脸上带血、挥舞拳头、一脸不屈样子的那张照片，对他的形象十分有利。

特朗普还可以利用遇刺事件来攻击民主党和反对他的人，是如何卑鄙，如何绝望。另外自然还能博得一些选民的同情。

所以从短期来看，这一事件对特朗普的好处远大于那一点伤情。

其实，拜登阵营在事件发生后的表现也证明了这一点。

特朗普遇刺消息传出后，拜登阵营反应迅速，也很谨慎。他们只是进行了一些常规的、政治正确的操作，比如谴责暴力，呼吁团结，暂停竞选活动，取消一些竞选广告等等。

但拜登和他的阵营不会过多评论这件事，以防有不同解读，反而给特朗普加分，给自己造成不利影响。

从长远看，特朗普遇刺事件对美国总统选举的影响还有待观察。毕竟现在离选举投票还有将近4个月的时间，如果在接下来的调查中发现这一事件和民主党没有关系，纯粹就是个人行为，那么这个刺杀案造成的轰动效应就会减弱，对特朗普和拜登的选情影响也不会太大。

但是如果调查发现，枪手库鲁克斯的行为和民主党有关，那对民主党的选情就会大大不利了。

文｜羊城晚报国际评论员 钱克锦
图丨网络
译｜赵凡