On March 4th, China's annual "two sessions" convened in Beijing. As a major event in the country's political life, the gatherings attract widespread attention both at home and abroad every year. The 2026 "two sessions" are particularly significant as they mark the opening year of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, signaling the direction of the country's economic and social development not only for this year but for the next five years.

China’s economic growth target is steady and pragmatic

As the world's second-largest economy, China's annual economic growth target serves not only as the central guide for domestic macroeconomic policies but also as an important window for the world to observe China's development trajectory and assess global economic trends. For 2026, China has set its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target within a range of 4.5% to 5%, while striving for even better results in practice. To understand this target, one must look beyond the numbers and consider the multiple implications behind it.

While interpreting the target, Shen Danyang, head of the government work report drafting team and director of the State Council Research Office, stated that this year's growth target takes into account both domestic economic conditions and shifts in the external environment. It strikes a balance between what is needed and what is feasible and represents a proactive and pragmatic growth target, reflecting both ambition and prudence.

China has made it clear that by 2035, its per capita GDP should reach the level of a moderately developed country. According to expert estimates, working backward from the long-term goal of raising per capita GDP to over 20,000 US dollars by 2035 and doubling the 2020 level, China would need an average annual growth rate of above 4.17% over the next decade to achieve this target.

This year's growth target also marks a shift back to a range after China set its target at "around 5%" for three consecutive years. Previously, China set a growth target of 6.5% to 7% in 2016 and achieved 6.8%, and in 2019 it set a target of 6% to 6.5% and achieved 6.1%, both surpassing the lower end of the target range.

Setting the growth target within a range leaves greater policy space for China to respond to uncertainties such as geopolitical risks and rising protectionism. Koh King Kee, a senior Malaysian scholar and president of the Centre for New Inclusive Asia, said that "this pragmatic target reflects both stability and flexibility in China's policymaking."

Liang Guoyong, a senior economist with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, said that setting the expected growth target as a range demonstrates the pragmatism and flexibility of China's economic policy, providing greater room to maneuver in response to external challenges such as global geopolitical turbulence and disorder in international economic governance.

Rahma Gafmi, an economics professor at Indonesia'sAirlangga University, said that looking ahead to the entire 15th Five-Year Plan period, the significance of China's growth target "lies not in the number or the range itself, but in setting the tone for development over the next five years: on the one hand, creating conditions for reform, transformation, and risk resolution through a reasonable growth rate; on the other, basing growth more firmly on expanding domestic demand, improving total factor productivity, and strengthening capability for sci-tech innovation."

APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen draws global attention

The year 2026 marks the APEC China Year. In November, the 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting will be held in Shenzhen, Guangdong. The theme for APEC 2026 is"Building an Asia-Pacific Community to Prosper Together," with three priorities: openness, innovation, and cooperation.

As China's largest provincial economy and a frontier of opening-up, Guangdong serves both as a key engine of China's economic growth and as a major platform for the country's participation in the Asia-Pacific cooperation. By deepening trade ties, industrial collaboration, and sci-tech innovation exchanges with APEC member economies, Guangdong has helped local companies expand into Asia-Pacific markets while attracting significant foreign investment, technology, and talent from APEC members, directly supporting steady economic growth.

Having visited Shenzhen multiple times, Koh noted three lasting impressions of the city: the speed of innovation, the deep integration of technology into urban governance, and robust advanced manufacturing capabilities.

Koh believes that Guangdong's industrial cluster advantages in fields such as 5G, artificial intelligence, the industrial internet, new energy vehicle, and photovoltaic manufacturing can connect seamlessly with Malaysia's regional role as an advanced manufacturing hub, digital services hub, and sustainable finance hub within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN). He expressed hope that, in terms of supply chain complementarity, Malaysia can leverage the APEC mechanism to promote the mutual recognition of standards and trade facilitation. This will allow the country to more closely link its strengths in fields such as electrical and electronics and semiconductors with the advanced manufacturing base of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area representedby Shenzhen.

Su Jian, a professor at Peking University's School of Economics and director of its National Center for Economic Research, said that supporting the APEC meeting well presents an important opportunity for Guangdong to advance institutional opening up. "On the one hand, the gathering of political and business leaders from different countries brings diverse information and ideas, helping Guangdong better align with international rules. On the other hand, hosting a major international event itself raises higher requirements for urban governance and industrial support systems. This 'anti-driving mechanism' will accelerate the intelligent upgrade of traditional industries and promote reform and development through greater openness."

China has hosted APEC three times, from Shanghai to Beijing and now to Shenzhen. The 25 years spanning these events outline a clear trajectory of China's integration with the world. Shenzhen in 2026 will showcase China's global leadership in sci-tech innovation and new heights of reform and opening-up. For the international community, whether following the APEC Shenzhen or interpreting China's new economic growth target, both offer insights into the future direction of the Chinese economy.

3月4日，中国一年一度的全国两会在北京召开。作为中国人政治生活中的大事，每年的全国两会受到中国国内和国际社会的广泛关注。2026年的两会更为特殊，这一年是中国第十五个五年规划的开局之年，这意味着，今年乃至未来五年中国经济社会要怎么发展，两会上都透露出明确的信号。

中国经济增长目标稳健务实

作为世界第二大经济体，中国每年设定的经济增长目标，不仅是国内宏观政策的核心导向，更是世界观察中国发展方向、判断全球经济走势的重要窗口。2026年中国将国内生产总值增长目标设定在4.5%—5%的区间，并在实际工作中努力争取更好结果。想要理解这个经济增长目标，不能只看数字，要看到它背后的多层含义。

中国政府工作报告起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任沈丹阳在解读目标时表示，今年的增长目标综合考虑了国内经济运行和外部环境变化，兼顾了需要与可能，是一个“既跳起来摸高、又稳得住步伐”的积极务实的目标。

中国已经明确：到2035年人均国内生产总值要达到中等发达国家水平。据专家研究测算，按照“到2035年人均GDP达到2万美元以上、比2020年翻一番”的远景目标来倒算，未来十年中国经济年均增长4.17%以上就可以实现这个目标。

今年的经济增长目标也是中国在连续三年将增速目标设为“5%左右”之后，再一次将目标调整为区间值。此前，中国曾在2016年设定6.5%—7%的增速目标，完成6.8%；2019年设定6%—6.5%的增速目标，完成6.1%，实际效果都好于目标底线。

中国将区间值设定为目标，是为应对地缘政治风险、保护主义抬头等各种不确定性因素预留了充分的政策空间。马来西亚资深学者、新亚洲战略研究中心理事长许庆琦认为：“这种务实目标体现出中国在政策上的稳健与弹性。”

联合国贸易和发展会议资深经济学家梁国勇则认为，经济增长预期目标确定为一个区间，展现出中国经济政策的务实性和灵活性，增加了应对全球地缘政治动荡、国际经济治理失序等外部挑战的回旋空间。

印尼艾尔朗加大学经济学教授拉赫玛·加夫米认为，展望整个“十五五”时期，中国设定经济增长预期目标的意义“不在于数字或区间本身，而在于为未来五年发展定调：一方面，通过合理增速为改革、转型和风险化解创造条件；另一方面，把增长更明确地建立在扩大内需、提升全要素生产率和科技创新能力之上”。

APEC深圳峰会备受瞩目

2026是APEC“中国年”。11月，APEC第三十三次领导人非正式会议将在广东深圳举行。2026年APEC主题为“建设亚太共同体，促进共同繁荣”，三大优先领域是“开放、创新、合作”。

广东作为中国经济第一大省、对外开放的前沿阵地，既是中国经济增长的重要引擎，也是中国参与亚太区域合作的核心载体。广东通过深化与APEC成员经济体的贸易往来、产业协作、科技创新交流，既为本地企业开拓了亚太市场，也吸引了来自APEC成员的大量外资、技术和人才，直接支撑了经济稳定增长。

许庆琦曾多次访问深圳，这座城市给他留下了三大深刻印象：创新速度、科技与城市治理的深度融合、强大的先进制造能力。

许庆琦认为，广东在5G、人工智能、工业互联网、新能源汽车和光伏制造等领域的产业集群优势，可以与马来西亚作为东盟先进制造中心、数字服务中心及可持续金融枢纽的区域角色实现无缝对接。他期待，在供应链互补性上，马来西亚将利用APEC机制推动标准互认与贸易便利化，将本国在电气电子、半导体等领域的优势，与以深圳为代表的粤港澳大湾区先进制造业基地更紧密地嵌合。

北京大学经济学院教授、北京大学国民经济研究中心主任苏剑认为，服务好APEC会议是广东推进制度型开放的重要契机。“一方面，各国政商界人士齐聚，带来多元信息与理念，有助于广东对接国际规则。另一方面，承办国际盛会本身也对城市治理、产业配套提出更高要求，这种‘倒逼机制’将推动传统行业加快智能化升级，以开放促改革、促发展。”

中国三次主办APEC，从上海、北京到深圳，其中跨越的25年勾勒出了中国走向世界的清晰轨迹。2026年的深圳将向世界展现出中国在全球的科创领导力与改革开放的新高度。对于国际社会而言，无论是关注深圳APEC，还是读懂新的经济增长目标，都能从中看到中国经济的未来方向。

文 | 记者 付怡 赵鹏
图 | 新华社