Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to make a state visit to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) from June 18th to 19th. According to media from the Republic of Korea (ROK), DPRK is planning a grand ceremony to welcome Putin, and during the visit, the two countries are expected to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement.

Naturally, the West is "deeply concerned" about the development of Russia-DPRK relations. Their concerns primarily focus on three aspects:

I. Increasing military cooperation between Russia and DPRK

The ongoing stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led both sides to require large quantities of artillery and ammunition. While the West is making every effort to aid Ukraine, it also seeks to cut off Russia's external support. However, there are beliefs in the West that the DPRK is supplying significant amounts of artillery and ammunition to Russia.

ROK sources have claimed that from August last year to February this year, DPRK delivered 6,700 containers of weapons and ammunition to Russia. Both Russia and DPRK have denied these claims, calling them "mad rumors." Nonetheless, the West remains suspicious of DPRK ammunition being provided to Russia.

The West believes that if DPRK supplies ammunition to Russia, Russia might reciprocate with missile, submarine, and even space technology, potentially leading to advancements in DPRK's missile, submarine, and nuclear capabilities. This possibility deeply worries the West.

II. Comprehensive cooperation between Russia and DPRK

Since the full-scale outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, DPRK has been one of Russia's "most steadfast supporters." In an op-ed published in DPRK's Rodong Sinmun on June 18th, Putin expressed gratitude for DPRK's firm support of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine and their alignment on international platforms such as the United Nations.

During this period, interactions between the two countries have become more frequent and in-depth. According to statistics from ROK's Ministry of Unification, there have been 18 high-level exchanges (meetings, international conferences, talks) between DPRK and Russia this year. This cooperation is not limited to military and economic aspects but could also significantly reshape regional international relations.

For instance, ahead of this visit, Putin stated that Russia and DPRK would develop a trade and settlement system independent of Western control, jointly opposing unilateral and illegal restrictive measures. This refers to Western sanctions imposed on both countries.

These indications suggest that the cooperation between Russia and DPRK could significantly impact the international landscape of Northeast Asia and even the Asia-Pacific region.

III. The West fearing DPRK becoming more difficult to handle 

Some Western commentators believe that Putin's state visit to DPRK brings a dual advantage for the DPRK government. On one hand, Putin's visit and the subsequent Russia-DPRK cooperation thrust DPRK into the international spotlight, enhancing its global standing. On the other hand, the visit bolsters the DPRK government's domestic prestige, reinforcing its authority and stability.

 The West has long pursued a strategy of sanctioning and isolating the DPRK government. Therefore, any positive developments for DPRK naturally cause significant concern in the West.

Source :Yangcheng Evening News

分析丨普京访问朝鲜，西方忧心忡忡

俄罗斯总统普京定于18日至19日对朝鲜进行国事访问。据韩国媒体报道，朝鲜方面将举办盛大仪式欢迎普京到访，访问期间双方可能签署一项全面战略伙伴协议。

自然，对于俄朝关系的发展，西方感到“忧心忡忡”。西方的担心主要在三个方面。

一，西方担心俄罗斯和朝鲜之间军事合作不断加强。

俄乌战场陷入僵局之后，双方都需要大量火炮和弹药。西方竭力援助乌克兰的同时，希望切断俄罗斯的“外援”。但西方认为，朝鲜正在向俄罗斯提供大量火炮和弹药。

韩国方面曾说，从去年8月至今年2月，朝鲜一共向俄罗斯输送了6700集装箱的武器弹药。不过俄罗斯和朝鲜都否认了这一说法，并称其为“疯狂的谬论”——尽管如此，西方仍然怀疑朝鲜向俄提供弹药。

西方认为，如果朝鲜向俄罗斯提供弹药，那么俄罗斯可能就会在导弹、潜艇甚至空间技术方面“回报”朝鲜，这可能导致朝鲜在导弹技术、潜艇技术甚至核武方面都可能取得突破。这当然令西方忧心忡忡。

二，西方担心俄罗斯和朝鲜的全面合作。

实际上，俄乌冲突全面爆发以来，朝鲜是俄罗斯“最坚定的支持者”之一。普京18日在朝鲜《劳动新闻》发表的署名文章中，就“对朝方坚定支持俄罗斯对乌克兰特别军事行动，并在联合国等国际舞台上保持一致路线表示感谢”。

这一时期，两国交往更加频繁、更加深入。韩国统一部的统计显示，今年朝鲜和俄罗斯公开的副部级以上高级别交流（会谈、国际会议、谈话）共计18次。这些合作当然不局限于军事和经济，更可能在重塑地区国际关系体系方面有重要影响。

比如，在这次访问前夕，普京就表示，俄朝将发展摆脱西方控制的贸易和结算体系，共同对抗单方面的非法限制措施。这里指的是西方对两国的制裁。

从这些迹象可以看出，俄罗斯和朝鲜的合作，可能会对东北亚甚至亚太地区国际格局产生很大影响。

三，西方担心更难对付朝鲜。

西方一些舆论认为，普京对朝鲜进行国事访问，对朝鲜政府来说是双重“利好”消息。一方面，普京到访、俄朝合作，令朝鲜成为国际舆论焦点，提高了朝鲜的国际地位；另一方面，普京到访也可以加强朝鲜政府在国内的威望，加强其执政地位。

而西方一直在制裁、孤立朝鲜政府，对于朝鲜政府的“利好”消息，西方当然会“忧心忡忡”。

文丨羊城晚报国际评论员 钱克锦
图丨资料图
译丨刘佳慧