On December 4th, the Republic of Korea's(ROK) largest opposition party, the Democratic Party, joined forces with five smaller parties, including the Party for Democracy and Peace, to submit an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol to the National Assembly, which was formally presented to the plenary session in the early hours of the following day. According to the law, the National Assembly must vote on the motion within 24 to 72 hours after submission, with the earliest possible vote completion in the early hours of December 6th. Yoon Suk-yeol is currently facing an "impeachment siege" initiated by a coalition of six parties.

The ROK Constitution stipulates that impeaching the president requires the support of more than two-thirds of the National Assembly members. With 300 seats in ROK's parliament, the ruling People Power Party holds only 108 seats, making it the minority party; the Democratic Party has 170 seats. This impeachment motion has garnered the support of 191 members, including one independent, falling just nine votes short of the required 200. If there are defectors within the People Power Party, the likelihood of the impeachment motion passing will significantly increase. To prevent internal division, the People Power Party has explicitly opposed impeachment, striving for a united front, but concerns about party unity persist.

If the impeachment motion is successful, Yoon Suk-yeol will be suspended from his duties, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo assuming presidential powers. Subsequently, the impeachment case will be transferred to the Constitutional Court for adjudication. A ruling in favor of impeachment by the Constitutional Court requires the support of six judges. However, the court currently has only six sitting judges, with three vacancies, which could potentially delay or obstruct the adjudication process. The adjudication period can last up to 180 days.

Looking back at history, the ROK has experienced two presidential impeachments: in 2004, President Roh Moo-hyun was impeached by the National Assembly, but the Constitutional Court ruled that the grounds were insufficient to remove him from office; in 2017, President Park Geun-hye was impeached and removed from office due to the "cronyism" scandal. The final ruling by the Constitutional Court could be the key to Yoon Suk-yeol's fate.

At present, whether Yoon Suk-yeol can weather this crisis hinges on two factors: first, whether the People Power Party can maintain internal unity, and second, the outcome of the Constitutional Court's ruling.

Source: Lingnan on the Cloud

六党派联手围攻，尹锡悦能否打赢“弹劾战”？  

12月4日，韩国最大在野党共同民主党联合祖国革新党等五个小党派，向国会提出针对总统尹锡悦的弹劾议案，并于次日凌晨正式提交全体会议。根据法律，国会需在议案提交后24至72小时内表决，最快或于12月6日凌晨完成投票。尹锡悦正面对六党联合发起的“弹劾围攻”。

韩国宪法规定，弹劾总统需国会三分之二以上议员支持。国会300席中，执政党国民力量党仅占108席，为少数党；在野党共同民主党拥有170席。这次弹劾案得到包括一名无党籍议员在内的191名议员支持，距离所需200票只差9票。如果国民力量党内有议员倒戈，弹劾案通过的可能性将大幅增加。为避免内部分裂，国民力量党已明确反对弹劾，力求一致立场，但党内团结仍存隐忧。

若弹劾议案通过，尹锡悦将被暂停职务，由总理韩德洙代行总统权力。随后，弹劾案将移交宪法法院裁定。宪法法院需6名法官支持弹劾才能成立。然而，目前法院仅有6名在任法官，另有3个席位空缺，可能导致裁定程序受阻或延迟。根据程序，裁定期限最长为180天。

回顾历史，韩国曾有两次总统弹劾案：2004年卢武铉被国会弹劾后，宪法法院裁定不足以解除其职务；2017年，朴槿惠因“亲信干政”丑闻被弹劾并解职。宪法法院的最终裁决，或将成为尹锡悦命运的关键。

眼下，尹锡悦能否安然渡过此劫，关键在于两点：一是国民力量党能否保持内部统一，二是宪法法院的裁决结果。

文丨羊城晚报国际评论员 钱克锦
译丨赵凡
英文审校丨林佳岱