China's COMAC, Boeing, and Airbus have jointly released a forecast for the global aviation market over the next 20 years. According to the report, the global commercial aircraft market is expected to require more than 40,000 new aircraft in the coming two decades. Of this total, China is projected to need over 9,000 new aircraft, positioning the country to become the largest single aviation market in the world. 

It is projected that over the next 20 years, global passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 3.75%, reaching 20.83 trillion passenger kilometers by 2043. Assuming the global economy maintains an average annual growth rate of about 2.5% until 2043, the global fleet of commercial aircraft is expected to reach 48,931 planes, with 43,863 jet airliners being delivered. Additionally, Airbus's global market forecast also indicates that the world will need 42,430 new aircraft over the next 20 years.

In terms of air cargo, the market is expected to perform strongly over the next two decades. Air cargo traffic is projected to maintain long-term growth at an average annual rate of 4%. By 2043, the global air cargo fleet is expected to expand to 3,900 aircraft. The East Asia and South Asia market are anticipated to experience the highest annual growth in cargo traffic. 

As China's middle class continues to grow, the number of flights per person in the country is expected to increase significantly. By 2043, the average number of flights per person in China will rise from 0.5 in 2023 to 1.7. According to Airbus's forecast, over the next 20 years, China will need 9,520 new passenger and cargo aircraft, which will account for more than 20% of the total global demand during that period. 

Over the next 20 years, China is expected to receive 9,323 jet airliners. By 2043, the size of China's civil aviation fleet is projected to reach 10,061 aircraft, accounting for 20.6% of the global commercial aircraft fleet. As a result, China is on track to become the world's largest single aviation market.

Source :Lingnan on the Cloud

未来20年，中国需要多少民航飞机？

中国商飞、波音和空客三家飞机制造商发布了未来20年全球航空运输市场的预测报告。数据显示，未来20年，商用飞机市场方面，全球预计需要40000多架新飞机，其中，中国预计需要9000多架新飞机，有望成为全球最大的单一航空运输市场。

预计未来20年，全球旅客周转量将以每年3.75%的速度增长，在2043年达到20.83万亿客公里。基于全球经济到2043年保持年均约2.5%的增长速度，届时全球客机机队规模预计达到48931架，将有43863架喷气客机交付。空客发布的全球市场预测也显示，全球未来20年将需要42430架新飞机。

在货运方面，随着航空货运市场表现强劲，未来20年，航空货运流量预计将保持年均4%的长期增长。预计全球航空货运机队到2043年将增长到3900架。东亚和南亚市场将出现最高的年均货运量增长。

此外，随着中产阶级群体的不断壮大，中国的人均乘机次数将从2023年的0.5次增长到2043年的1.7次。空客预测显示，未来20年，中国将需要9520架新客机和货机，占同期全球总需求的20%以上。

预计未来20年，中国航空运输市场将接收喷气客机9323架。到2043年，中国民航的机队规模将达10061架，占全球客机机队的20.6%。中国有望成为全球最大的单一航空运输市场。

文 | 记者 李志文
译 | 林佳岱
审 | 赵凡