On the night of October 29th and into the early morning of October 30th, torrential rains suddenly fell in southeastern Spain, with the heavily affected areas receiving 491 millimeters of rainfall in just eight hours, exceeding the total rainfall of the previous 20 months. Currently, the flood triggered by the heavy rains has claimed over 200 lives, making it the deadliest flood disaster in Europe since 1967, according to Reuters. However, this tragic outcome cannot be solely attributed to "natural disasters."

Geographically, the worst-affected region, Valencia, is located in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea. In ancient times, the Mediterranean was originally a basin, while the Iberian Peninsula features the terrain of a highMeseta Central in the middle surrounded by lower coastal plains and lowlands; Valencia sits at the juncture between the plateau and the basin, where heavy rainfall over a short period results in fast-moving and highly impactful floods.

Climatically, Spain is the driest country in Europe. Prior to the flood disaster, Spain was experiencing severe drought conditions, with the Catalonia region enduring three years of severe drought and water reservoirs depleted to less than 20% of their capacity. The United Nations has even warned that three-quarters of Spain's land is at risk of desertification, which further exacerbated the severity of the floods.

Moreover, the Mediterranean's oceanic climate is characterized by a mismatch between rainfall and heat, with heavy rains occurring during the late autumn season and at night, when temperatures were around 10°C. This placed flood victims at increased risk of hypothermia.

The Spanish government's early warning and rescue organization capabilities have been widely criticized in the aftermath of the flood disaster.

Flooding began in the afternoon of October 29th, but residents only received warning messages at 8:00 PM that day. Following the flood disaster, France offered immediate assistance in the form of 200 firefighters, which was rejected by the Spanish government. A week after the flood, the government only dispatched 1,200 soldiers to the disaster area, not for rescue efforts but to maintain local social order, leaving disaster relief to spontaneously organized volunteers and foreign aid forces.

Why was this the case? A significant factor is the political struggle between parties. The Spanish central government is led by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, while the ruling party in the Valencia regional government is the People's Party. The regional government was reluctant to seek help, and the central government was happy to stand aside, leaving the flood-affected civilians as collateral damage in the political struggle between the two parties.

The Spanish government's poor performance in responding to floods has a history. In 1957, Valencia experienced a major flood disaster, prompting the government to build new river channels intended to reduce flood hazards. However, the new river channels were redirected south, coinciding with the city's southern expansion plans, increasing the risk of future floods. Over the past 20 years, the Spanish government has demolished many dams in the country under the pretext of "restoring river ecosystems and enhancing biodiversity," which also exacerbated the damage caused by floods.

Due to the long-term drought, the public generally lacked awareness and experience in dealing with flood disasters. The Spanish government issued late warning messages, and many people ignored them upon receipt. This indifference was not limited to ordinary citizens but also extended to knowledgeable experts and wealthy individuals. On the afternoon of the flood disaster, four renowned Spanish entrepreneurs and experts chose to dine together in Valencia and, when leaving, failed to take the correct route, ultimately losing contact in the flood.

Source: Lingnan On the Cloud

西班牙洪灾背后的思考

西班牙东南部在10月29日晚间至30日凌晨突降暴雨，重灾区在8小时内雨量达到491毫米，超过了前20个月的降雨总量。目前，暴雨引发的洪灾已经造成超过200人死亡，路透社称这是1967年以来欧洲死亡人数最多的洪灾。然而，这样惨烈的结果，并不能用一句“天灾”来概括。

从地形上讲，此次受灾最严重的西班牙瓦伦西亚地区位于伊比利亚半岛的东南部，紧挨着地中海。远古时期的地中海本是一个盆地，伊比利亚半岛的地势则是中间高四周低，岛中间是梅塞塔高原，岛四周是沿海平原和低地；而瓦伦西亚地区正处在高原和盆地之间的连接点上，短时间内的大量降雨势必会造成速度急、冲击力度大的洪水。

从气候上讲，西班牙是欧洲最干旱的国家。洪灾发生之前，西班牙正遭受着严重的旱灾，加泰罗尼亚地区已经历3年苦旱，水库蓄水量仅剩不到两成。联合国甚至发出警告，西班牙有四分之三的土地面临着荒漠化风险。土地荒漠化进一步加剧了洪水肆虐的程度。

此外，由于地中海海洋性气候具有雨热不同期的特点，暴雨发生时正值深秋季节，又是深夜，气温只有10℃左右，浸在洪水中的受灾者面临的失温危险剧增。

西班牙政府的预警和救援组织能力在此次洪灾中饱受诟病。

10月29日下午开始发洪水，而居民直到当日20时才收到预警短信。洪灾发生后，法国第一时间提出援助200名消防员，而西班牙政府予以回绝。洪灾一周后，政府才派出1200名军人前往灾区。而且，这些军人并非前去救灾，而是去维持当地社会秩序，救灾全靠志愿者自发组织和外国援助力量。

为什么会这样？一个重要的原因是，西班牙中央政府由社会主义工人党执政，而瓦伦西亚地方政府的执政党是人民党。地方政府不愿拉下面子求助，中央政府也乐得坐视不理，可怜洪灾中的百姓成了两党争斗的牺牲品。

西班牙政府应对洪水的差劲表现是有传承的。1957年，瓦伦西亚遭遇了一次重大洪灾，政府开始修建新河道，本意是减少洪灾危害。但新河道改道往南，又和城市向南发展的规划重合，增加了未来洪水发生的危险。过去20年间，西班牙政府以“恢复河流生态系统并增强生物多样性”为名，拆除了国内多座水坝。这也加剧了洪水带来的危害。

由于之前遭遇长期的干旱，民众普遍没有应对洪灾的意识和经验。本来西班牙政府发出预警信息的时间就晚，据说很多民众收到信息之后还置之不理。不仅普通人如此，连知识丰富的专家和身价不菲的富豪也不把预警当回事。洪灾发生的那天下午，4名西班牙知名的企业家和专家还选择在瓦伦西亚聚餐，乘车离开时没有选择正确的路线，最终在洪水中失联。

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