On May 29th, the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first four months of the year. Among the figures, one seemingly modest but crucial indicator stood out: the Producer Price Index (PPI)— essentially the price at which factories sell their products to downstream buyers, indicating whether prices are rising or falling. In April, Guangdong's PPI rose 1.4% year on year, ending a 38-month streak of declines.

Overall, Guangdong's return to positive PPI growth reflects the combined effects of external drivers and domestic momentum. First, it's driven by rising global commodity prices. In April, prices in Guangdong's mining industry increased 24.7% year on year, while those in the raw materials industry rose 6.5%. Higher prices for imported raw materials such as crude oil and non-ferrous metals naturally pushed up factory-gate prices, a trend seen across China.

Second, Guangdong is seeing strong momentum from manufacturing upgrades. In the first quarter, Guangdong's integrated circuit output soared 43.1% year on year. In key sectors such as AI computing power, smart terminals, and automotive electronics, Guangdong boasts comprehensive industrial supply chains, enabling companies to convert technological advantages into competitive products and stronger pricing power.

Guangdong's foreign trade has also demonstrated robust resilience. In the first quarter, its total foreign trade in goods grew 19.4% year on year, with exports rising 23.8%. As a major export-oriented powerhouse in the country, Guangdong responds swiftly to changes in international markets.

As a result, corporate profitability is improving substantially. In the first quarter, industrial enterprises above a designated size in Guangdong posted double-digit profit growth. The return of the PPI to positive territory means factory-gate prices are no longer being forced down, and profit margins are recovering. With healthier finances, companies can expand production, increase investment in research and development, and raise employee wages, all of which are essential ingredients for a virtuous economic cycle.

时隔38个月，广东这个指标转正了

5月29日，广东省统计局公布了前四月全省经济运行数据。其中有一个数据看似不起眼，却很关键——PPI，工业生产者出厂价格指数。通俗讲，就是工厂把产品卖给下游时的出厂价，是涨了还是跌了。4月份，广东PPI同比上涨1.4%，结束了连续38个月的下降。

整体来看，这一轮广东PPI转正，背后正是“外部推力+内生动力”的双重叠加。首先是国际大宗商品涨价的传导。4月份广东采掘工业价格同比涨了24.7%，原材料工业涨了6.5%。原油、有色金属这些进口原料贵了，出厂价自然得跟着动，这是全国共性的因素。

其次是广东制造业升级的动能很足。一季度广东集成电路产量增长43.1%。AI算力、智能终端、汽车电子这些赛道，广东都有完整的产业链布局，企业能把技术优势转化成产品优势和价格优势。

广东外贸回暖的弹性很强。一季度广东货物贸易进出口同比增长19.4%，其中出口增长23.8%。作为外向型经济大省，广东对国际市场变化的响应速度很快。

广东企业盈利在实质性改善。一季度广东规上工业企业利润实现两位数增长。PPI转正意味着企业出厂价不再被压低，利润空间在修复。企业有钱了，才能扩大再生产、增加研发投入、给员工涨薪——这些都是经济良性循环的基础。

文| 陈泽云
翻译丨魏薇
审校 | 曾敏