March 23rd marked World Meteorological Day. On that day, the Guangdong Meteorological Service held a special report meeting for World Meteorological Day 2026, releasing the "Guangdong Early Warning Big Data Report 2025." According to the report, in 2025, various departments at the provincial level in Guangdong issued 82 batches of early warnings through the Guangdong Emergency Early Warning Release Platform, with SMS messages sent to a record 15.45 billion person-times.

At the report meeting, the Guangdong Meteorological Service released new technologies and products, including the X-band Phased-Array Radar Network, the South China Sea typhoon numerical forecast AI-coupled model (TRAMS-AIC V1.0), and the "Zhuji Yuyan" AI Nowcasting System.

Many of these new technologies and products have incorporated AI technologies. Among them, the "Zhuji Yuyan" AI Nowcasting System was piloted during the 2025 rainy season. Integrated with an AI-based severe convection forecasting and early warning model, the system achieved a 90% forecast accuracy for thunderstorms and strong winds, extended the lead time for such warnings to 78 minutes, and provided 38 minutes of advance warning for high-level rainstorms.

The South China Sea typhoon numerical forecast AI coupling model (TRAMS-AIC V1.0), independently developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology (ITMM), deeply embeds large AI models into traditional numerical models, achieving a dual-drive mechanism that combines physics-based and data-driven approaches. Its 72-hour typhoon track forecast error decreased by 25%, and the 120-hour error dropped significantly by 45%, providing meteorological departments in Guangdong and across China with a "Guangdong-made" system for typhoon forecasting and reducing reliance on foreign products.

更多AI技术将用于汛期预报预警

3月23日是世界气象日，广东省气象局在当天举办2026年世界气象日专题报告会，会上发布了《2025年广东预警大数据报告》。根据报告，2025年广东省级各部门通过广东省突发事件预警信息发布中心各种渠道发布预警信息82期，其中短信受众达到154.5亿人次，受众人次创历史新高。

报告会上，广东省气象局发布了X波段相控阵雷达网、南海台风数值预报AI耦合模式（TRAMS-AIC V1.0）、“珠玑·雨燕”AI短临预报系统等新技术和新产品。

据介绍，不少新技术新产品融入了人工智能技术。其中，“珠玑·雨燕”AI短临预报系统已在2025年雨季时试验性使用，融入AI强对流预报预警模型的系统，对雷雨大风的预报识别命中率达90%，使雷雨大风预警提前量达到78分钟，暴雨高级别预警提前量38分钟。

由广州热带海洋气象研究所自主研发的南海台风数值预报AI耦合模式（TRAMS-AIC V1.0），将AI大模型深度嵌入传统数值模式，实现“物理+数据”双轮驱动；其72小时台风路径预报误差下降25%，120小时误差更是大幅下降45%，让广东省乃至我国其他省市气象部门在预报台风时有了“广东制造”，减少对国外产品的依赖。

文丨记者 梁怿韬 通讯员 王天巍
翻译丨黄健新
审校丨柯妃娟